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Chris Chin v James Stokes (Wed 19 Jan 2011)

Match won by James Stokes. Result: 9-15,13-15,3-15.

Starting level for Chris Chin: 1,325, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for James Stokes: 1,868, level confidence: 55%.
James Stokes to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Chris Chin.

James Stokes won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Stokes played 80% better than Chris Chin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Stokes actually played at a level of 2,111 and Chris Chin at a level of 1,173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.8% and 10.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Stokes changes to +6.1% and Chris Chin changes to -10.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Stokes becomes +3.5% and for Chris Chin becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for James Stokes is +2.7% and for Chris Chin is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Stokes: 74%, Chris Chin: 55%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Stokes: 66%, Chris Chin: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Chin: 1,266, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for James Stokes: 1,915, level confidence: 66%.