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Gareth Jones v Ian Blows (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Ian Blows. Result: 11-15,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,083, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Blows: 1,377, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ian Blows to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Gareth Jones.

Ian Blows won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian Blows played 43% better than Gareth Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian Blows actually played at a level of 1,458 and Gareth Jones at a level of 1,023. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.2% and 5.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian Blows changes to +5.2% and Gareth Jones changes to -5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian Blows becomes +3.6% and for Gareth Jones becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ian Blows is +2.7% and for Gareth Jones is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian Blows: 86%, Gareth Jones: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian Blows: 81%, Gareth Jones: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,051, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Ian Blows: 1,412, level confidence: 81%.