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Marvin Rust v Alastair Ambrose (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Alastair Ambrose. Result: 15-12,10-15,3-15,9-15.

Starting level for Marvin Rust: 2,581, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Alastair Ambrose: 2,675, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Alastair Ambrose to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Marvin Rust.

Alastair Ambrose won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alastair Ambrose played 35% better than Marvin Rust in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alastair Ambrose actually played at a level of 3,048 and Marvin Rust at a level of 2,265. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose changes to +8.6% and Marvin Rust changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose becomes +4% and for Marvin Rust becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose is +3% and for Marvin Rust is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alastair Ambrose: 87%, Marvin Rust: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alastair Ambrose: 76%, Marvin Rust: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marvin Rust: 2,524, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Alastair Ambrose: 2,751, level confidence: 76%.