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Nathan Derrick v Robin Aris (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Nathan Derrick. Result: 15-12,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Nathan Derrick: 2,918, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Robin Aris: 1,886, level confidence: 70%.
Nathan Derrick to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Robin Aris.

Nathan Derrick won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Derrick played 30% better than Robin Aris in this match.

As Nathan Derrick has played below his allowed range at 2,515, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Nathan Derrick would normally have been playing at level 2,758 (based on typical behaviour), Robin Aris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.8% and 4.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Derrick changes to -1.8% and Robin Aris changes to +4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Derrick becomes -1.2% and for Robin Aris becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nathan Derrick is -0.9% and for Robin Aris is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Derrick: 81%, Robin Aris: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Derrick: 74%, Robin Aris: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nathan Derrick: 2,888, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Robin Aris: 1,924, level confidence: 77%.