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Chris Roper v Graham Evans (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Graham Evans. Result: 11-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,252, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Graham Evans: 1,901, level confidence: 70%.
Graham Evans to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Chris Roper.

Graham Evans won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Graham Evans played 37% better than Chris Roper in this match.

In this case, Graham Evans played at level 1,761 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Graham Evans would normally have been playing at level 1,805 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Roper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Graham Evans changes to 0% and Chris Roper changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Graham Evans becomes 0% and for Chris Roper becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Graham Evans is 0% and for Chris Roper is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Graham Evans: 83%, Chris Roper: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Graham Evans: 79%, Chris Roper: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Roper: 1,267, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Graham Evans: 1,898, level confidence: 79%.