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Kath Kemp v Jan Brynjolffssen (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 13-15,9-15,15-17.

Starting level for Kath Kemp: 940, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,416, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Kath Kemp.

Jan Brynjolffssen won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played 36% better than Kath Kemp in this match.

In this case, Jan Brynjolffssen played at level 1,313 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jan Brynjolffssen would normally have been playing at level 1,346 (based on typical behaviour), Kath Kemp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen changes to 0% and Kath Kemp changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen becomes 0% and for Kath Kemp becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen is 0% and for Kath Kemp is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 94%, Kath Kemp: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 90%, Kath Kemp: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kath Kemp: 953, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,414, level confidence: 90%.