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Jed Whelan v David Wells (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Jed Whelan. Result: 15-10,16-14,15-13.

Starting level for Jed Whelan: 1,801, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Wells: 1,412, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jed Whelan to win as he is currently playing 28% better than David Wells.

Jed Whelan won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jed Whelan played 34% better than David Wells in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jed Whelan actually played at a level of 1,849 and David Wells at a level of 1,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.4% and 2.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jed Whelan changes to +2.3% and David Wells changes to -2.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jed Whelan becomes +1.9% and for David Wells becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jed Whelan is +1.4% and for David Wells is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jed Whelan: 89%, David Wells: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jed Whelan: 87%, David Wells: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jed Whelan: 1,823, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for David Wells: 1,389, level confidence: 86%.