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Nick Lavery v Scott Rickard (Thu 20 Jan 2011)

Match won by Scott Rickard. Result: 8-15,8-15,6-15.

Starting level for Nick Lavery: 3,164, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Scott Rickard: 4,106, level confidence: 66%.
Scott Rickard to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Nick Lavery.

Scott Rickard won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Rickard played 105% better than Nick Lavery in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Rickard actually played at a level of 5,155 and Nick Lavery at a level of 2,520. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Rickard changes to +21% and Nick Lavery changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Rickard becomes +7% and for Nick Lavery becomes -8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Scott Rickard is +5.2% and for Nick Lavery is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nick Lavery is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Rickard: 81%, Nick Lavery: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Rickard: 65%, Nick Lavery: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Lavery: 3,009, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Scott Rickard: 4,315, level confidence: 65%.