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Nick Catt v Tom Horton (Tue 29 Apr 2014)

Match won by Tom Horton. Result: 11-15,9-15,8-15.

Starting level for Nick Catt: 850, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Tom Horton: 1,385, level confidence: 56%.
Tom Horton to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Nick Catt.

Tom Horton won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Horton played 61% better than Nick Catt in this match.

In this case, Tom Horton played at level 1,366 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Nick Catt is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Horton: 75%, Nick Catt: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Horton: 74%, Nick Catt: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Catt: 849, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Tom Horton: 1,383, level confidence: 74%.