SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Martin Miller v Paul Carter (Tue 29 Apr 2014)

Match won by Paul Carter. Result: 9-15,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for Martin Miller: 616, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Paul Carter: 1,211, level confidence: 28%.
Paul Carter to win as he is currently playing 97% better than Martin Miller.

Paul Carter won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Carter played 48% better than Martin Miller in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Carter was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 902 and 1,211 without affecting his level.

In this case, Paul Carter played at level 988 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Carter would normally have been playing at level 1,068 (based on typical behaviour), Martin Miller played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Carter changes to 0% and Martin Miller changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Carter becomes 0% and for Martin Miller becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Carter is 0% and for Martin Miller is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Carter: 53%, Martin Miller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Carter: 46%, Martin Miller: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin Miller: 626, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Paul Carter: 1,209, level confidence: 46%.