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Dennis Arthur v Peter Quarman (Tue 29 Apr 2014)

Match won by Dennis Arthur. Result: 15-5,15-12,16-14.

Starting level for Dennis Arthur: 1,756, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Peter Quarman: 1,513, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Dennis Arthur to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Peter Quarman.

Dennis Arthur won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dennis Arthur played 51% better than Peter Quarman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dennis Arthur actually played at a level of 2,000 and Peter Quarman at a level of 1,328. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dennis Arthur changes to +13% and Peter Quarman changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dennis Arthur becomes +6.2% and for Peter Quarman becomes -6.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Dennis Arthur is +4% and for Peter Quarman is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dennis Arthur: 82%, Peter Quarman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dennis Arthur: 72%, Peter Quarman: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dennis Arthur: 1,824, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Peter Quarman: 1,452, level confidence: 73%.