SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

James Clyne v Tim Kipling (Tue 29 Apr 2014)

Match won by Tim Kipling. Result: 5-15,6-15,11-15.

Starting level for James Clyne: 2,892, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Tim Kipling: 3,166, level confidence: 56%.
Tim Kipling to win as he is currently playing 9% better than James Clyne.

Tim Kipling won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Kipling played 105% better than James Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Kipling actually played at a level of 4,328 and James Clyne at a level of 2,116. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Kipling changes to +35% and James Clyne changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Kipling becomes +11.6% and for James Clyne becomes -9.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Tim Kipling is +7.5% and for James Clyne is -6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Kipling: 75%, James Clyne: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Kipling: 55%, James Clyne: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Clyne: 2,724, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Tim Kipling: 3,399, level confidence: 55%.