Nicky Seabrook v Kirsten Morley (Mon 24 Jan 2011)
Match won by Kirsten Morley. Result: 11-15,15-13,7-15,13-15.
Starting level for
Nicky Seabrook:
225, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Kirsten Morley:
189, level confidence: 66%.
Nicky Seabrook to win as she is currently playing
19% better than Kirsten Morley.
Kirsten Morley won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kirsten Morley played
25% better than Nicky Seabrook in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kirsten Morley actually played at a level of
231 and Nicky Seabrook at a level of
184. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kirsten Morley changes to +16% and Nicky Seabrook changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kirsten Morley becomes +9.3% and for Nicky Seabrook becomes -11%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Kirsten Morley is +7% and for Nicky Seabrook is -8.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kirsten Morley: 81%, Nicky Seabrook: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kirsten Morley: 67%, Nicky Seabrook: 59%.
Final level for Nicky Seabrook:
208, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Kirsten Morley:
202, level confidence: 67%.