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Nicky Seabrook v Kirsten Morley (Mon 24 Jan 2011)

Match won by Kirsten Morley. Result: 11-15,15-13,7-15,13-15.

Starting level for Nicky Seabrook: 225, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Kirsten Morley: 189, level confidence: 66%.
Nicky Seabrook to win as she is currently playing 19% better than Kirsten Morley.

Kirsten Morley won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kirsten Morley played 25% better than Nicky Seabrook in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kirsten Morley actually played at a level of 231 and Nicky Seabrook at a level of 184. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kirsten Morley changes to +16% and Nicky Seabrook changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kirsten Morley becomes +9.3% and for Nicky Seabrook becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Kirsten Morley is +7% and for Nicky Seabrook is -8.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kirsten Morley: 81%, Nicky Seabrook: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kirsten Morley: 67%, Nicky Seabrook: 59%.

Final level for Nicky Seabrook: 208, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Kirsten Morley: 202, level confidence: 67%.