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Fiona McClure v Carol Booth (Mon 24 Jan 2011)

Match won by Fiona McClure. Result: 13-15,15-12,12-15,17-15,17-15.

Starting level for Fiona McClure: 244, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Carol Booth: 229, level confidence: 56%.
Fiona McClure to win as she is currently playing 7% better than Carol Booth.

Fiona McClure won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fiona McClure played 8% better than Carol Booth in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fiona McClure actually played at a level of 246 and Carol Booth at a level of 227. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fiona McClure changes to +0.7% and Carol Booth changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fiona McClure becomes +0.7% and for Carol Booth becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Fiona McClure is +0.5% and for Carol Booth is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fiona McClure: 78%, Carol Booth: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fiona McClure: 78%, Carol Booth: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fiona McClure: 245, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Carol Booth: 227, level confidence: 74%.