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Steve Leverington v Nick Cartwright (Tue 25 Jan 2011)

Match won by Nick Cartwright. Result: 14-16,15-8,4-15,16-14,6-15.

Starting level for Steve Leverington: 1,391, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Nick Cartwright: 1,492, level confidence: 68%.
Nick Cartwright to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Steve Leverington.

Nick Cartwright won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cartwright played 13% better than Steve Leverington in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Cartwright actually played at a level of 1,534 and Steve Leverington at a level of 1,353. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Cartwright changes to +2.1% and Steve Leverington changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Cartwright becomes +1.8% and for Steve Leverington becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nick Cartwright is +1.4% and for Steve Leverington is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cartwright: 83%, Steve Leverington: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cartwright: 80%, Steve Leverington: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Leverington: 1,365, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Nick Cartwright: 1,510, level confidence: 80%.