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Chris Lynam v Charles Yerrell (Tue 25 Jan 2011)

Match won by Chris Lynam. Result: 15-7,16-14,15-5.

Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,142, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 2,202, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Charles Yerrell to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Chris Lynam.

Chris Lynam won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 77% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Lynam played 77% better than Charles Yerrell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Lynam actually played at a level of 2,889 and Charles Yerrell at a level of 1,633. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Lynam changes to +34% and Charles Yerrell changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Lynam becomes +13% and for Charles Yerrell becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Lynam is +9.7% and for Charles Yerrell is -8.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Charles Yerrell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Lynam: 86%, Charles Yerrell: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Lynam: 64%, Charles Yerrell: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,347, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Charles Yerrell: 2,115, level confidence: 68%.