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Dave Cooper v Ben Andrews (Tue 25 Jan 2011)

Match won by Ben Andrews. Result: 15-11,12-15,13-15,9-15.

Starting level for Dave Cooper: 1,471, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ben Andrews: 1,546, level confidence: 69%.
Ben Andrews to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Dave Cooper.

Ben Andrews won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Andrews played 21% better than Dave Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Andrews actually played at a level of 1,662 and Dave Cooper at a level of 1,368. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Andrews changes to +7.3% and Dave Cooper changes to -7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Andrews becomes +4.3% and for Dave Cooper becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ben Andrews is +3.2% and for Dave Cooper is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Andrews: 83%, Dave Cooper: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Andrews: 77%, Dave Cooper: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Cooper: 1,423, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ben Andrews: 1,594, level confidence: 77%.