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Dan Collison v John Kerley (Thu 27 Jan 2011)

Match won by John Kerley. Result: 15-8,15-8,10-15,13-15,15-17.

Starting level for Dan Collison: 1,151, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for John Kerley: 1,573, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
John Kerley to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Dan Collison.

John Kerley won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Kerley played 6% better than Dan Collison in this match.

As John Kerley has played below his allowed range at 1,335, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that John Kerley would normally have been playing at level 1,525 (based on typical behaviour), Dan Collison played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.3% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Kerley changes to -6.3% and Dan Collison changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Kerley becomes -3.9% and for Dan Collison becomes +6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Kerley is -2.9% and for Dan Collison is +4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Kerley: 92%, Dan Collison: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Kerley: 81%, Dan Collison: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Collison: 1,202, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for John Kerley: 1,526, level confidence: 81%.