Adam Stone v Dave Relf (Tue 06 May 2014)
Match won by Adam Stone. Result: 15-11,9-15,15-8,17-19,15-5.
Starting level for
Adam Stone:
770, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
Dave Relf:
694, level confidence: 29%.
Adam Stone to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Dave Relf.
Adam Stone won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Stone played
13% better than Dave Relf in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Stone actually played at a level of
777 and Dave Relf at a level of
687. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Stone changes to +0.9% and Dave Relf changes to -0.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Stone becomes +0.9% and for Dave Relf becomes -0.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Adam Stone is +0.6% and for Dave Relf is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Stone: 32%, Dave Relf: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Stone: 31%, Dave Relf: 53%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adam Stone:
773, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Dave Relf:
692, level confidence: 53%.