SquashLevels calculations
Tim Kipling v Chris Lynam (Tue 06 May 2014)
Match won by Tim Kipling. Result: 16-14,5-15,15-2,15-8.
Starting level for
Tim Kipling:
3,400, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Chris Lynam:
2,649, level confidence: 63%.
Tim Kipling to win as he is currently playing
28% better than Chris Lynam.
Tim Kipling won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Kipling played
27% better than Chris Lynam in this match.
In this case, Tim Kipling played at level 3,362 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Chris Lynam is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Kipling: 73%, Chris Lynam: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Kipling: 73%, Chris Lynam: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tim Kipling:
3,395, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Chris Lynam:
2,645, level confidence: 79%.