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Keeley Peacock v Jeff Hobden (Thu 27 Jan 2011)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 14-16,13-15,15-11,9-15.

Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,320, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,707, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Keeley Peacock.

Jeff Hobden won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 21% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.

As Jeff Hobden has played below his allowed range at 1,609, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Jeff Hobden would normally have been playing at level 1,670 (based on typical behaviour), Keeley Peacock played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to -0.8% and Keeley Peacock changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes -0.7% and for Keeley Peacock becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is -0.5% and for Keeley Peacock is +1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 89%, Keeley Peacock: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 86%, Keeley Peacock: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,337, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,696, level confidence: 86%.