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Chris Roper v Simon Maxen (Thu 27 Jan 2011)

Match won by Simon Maxen. Result: 15-5,11-15,13-15,13-15.

Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,267, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,699, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Simon Maxen to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Chris Roper.

Simon Maxen won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Maxen played 15% better than Chris Roper in this match.

As Simon Maxen has played below his allowed range at 1,528, his level reduction is 4.4% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Maxen would normally have been playing at level 1,652 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Roper played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Maxen changes to -3.7% and Chris Roper changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Maxen becomes -2.8% and for Chris Roper becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Simon Maxen is -2.1% and for Chris Roper is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Maxen: 89%, Chris Roper: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Maxen: 83%, Chris Roper: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Roper: 1,301, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,662, level confidence: 83%.