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Paul Gandolfo v Alan Howell (Wed 07 May 2014)

Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 15-5,16-14,15-11.

Starting level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,355, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,246, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Paul Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Alan Howell.

Paul Gandolfo won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played 54% better than Alan Howell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gandolfo actually played at a level of 1,612 and Alan Howell at a level of 1,047. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to +18% and Alan Howell changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes +8.8% and for Alan Howell becomes -9.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is +5.7% and for Alan Howell is -5.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alan Howell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 86%, Alan Howell: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 72%, Alan Howell: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Gandolfo: 1,431, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,209, level confidence: 71%.