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Nick Ridgwaysnr v Dave Relf (Thu 27 Jan 2011)

Match won by Nick Ridgwaysnr. Result: 15-11,15-11,15-13.

Starting level for Nick Ridgwaysnr: 1,568, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Relf: 1,022, level confidence: 63%.
Nick Ridgwaysnr to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Dave Relf.

Nick Ridgwaysnr won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Ridgwaysnr played 37% better than Dave Relf in this match.

In this case, Nick Ridgwaysnr played at level 1,443 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nick Ridgwaysnr would normally have been playing at level 1,485 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Relf played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr changes to 0% and Dave Relf changes to +2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr becomes 0% and for Dave Relf becomes +2.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nick Ridgwaysnr is 0% and for Dave Relf is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Ridgwaysnr: 86%, Dave Relf: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Ridgwaysnr: 82%, Dave Relf: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Ridgwaysnr: 1,566, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Dave Relf: 1,038, level confidence: 75%.