Ingo Kelling v Paul Giffen (Thu 27 Jan 2011)
Match won by Ingo Kelling. Result: 11-15,15-12,16-14,15-6.
Starting level for
Ingo Kelling:
1,293, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Paul Giffen:
1,142, level confidence: 32%.
Ingo Kelling to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Paul Giffen.
Ingo Kelling won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ingo Kelling played
24% better than Paul Giffen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ingo Kelling actually played at a level of
1,352 and Paul Giffen at a level of
1,092. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.6% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling changes to +1.9% and Paul Giffen changes to -4.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling becomes +1.7% and for Paul Giffen becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ingo Kelling is +1.3% and for Paul Giffen is -2.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ingo Kelling: 85%, Paul Giffen: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ingo Kelling: 81%, Paul Giffen: 54%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ingo Kelling:
1,307, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Paul Giffen:
1,112, level confidence: 54%.