SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Janet Lawlor v Jane Poynter (Mon 31 Jan 2011)

Match won by Jane Poynter. Result: 15-12,11-15,15-11,11-15,11-15.

Starting level for Janet Lawlor: 121, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Jane Poynter: 210, level confidence: 59%.
Jane Poynter to win as she is currently playing 74% better than Janet Lawlor.

Jane Poynter won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jane Poynter played 9% better than Janet Lawlor in this match.

As Jane Poynter has played below her allowed range at 152, her level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Jane Poynter would normally have been playing at level 193 (based on typical behaviour), Janet Lawlor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jane Poynter changes to -6.9% and Janet Lawlor changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jane Poynter becomes -5% and for Janet Lawlor becomes +9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jane Poynter is -3.7% and for Janet Lawlor is +6.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jane Poynter: 77%, Janet Lawlor: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jane Poynter: 61%, Janet Lawlor: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Janet Lawlor: 129, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Jane Poynter: 202, level confidence: 61%.