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Ingo Kelling v Richard Batchelor (Tue 01 Feb 2011)

Match won by Richard Batchelor. Result: 11-15,11-15,13-15.

Starting level for Ingo Kelling: 1,307, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richard Batchelor: 1,265, level confidence: 60%.
Ingo Kelling to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Richard Batchelor.

Richard Batchelor won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Batchelor played 37% better than Ingo Kelling in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Batchelor actually played at a level of 1,507 and Ingo Kelling at a level of 1,097. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Batchelor changes to +19% and Ingo Kelling changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Batchelor becomes +9.6% and for Ingo Kelling becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Richard Batchelor is +7.2% and for Ingo Kelling is -5.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Batchelor: 78%, Ingo Kelling: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Batchelor: 65%, Ingo Kelling: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ingo Kelling: 1,243, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Richard Batchelor: 1,354, level confidence: 65%.