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Gavin Bone v David Lloyd (Tue 13 May 2014)

Match won by Gavin Bone. Result: 15-10,15-3,15-7.

Starting level for Gavin Bone: 1,252, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 981, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Gavin Bone to win as he is currently playing 28% better than David Lloyd.

Gavin Bone won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gavin Bone played 125% better than David Lloyd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gavin Bone actually played at a level of 1,662 and David Lloyd at a level of 739. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gavin Bone changes to +29% and David Lloyd changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gavin Bone becomes +13.6% and for David Lloyd becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Gavin Bone is +8.9% and for David Lloyd is -8.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that David Lloyd is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gavin Bone: 86%, David Lloyd: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gavin Bone: 65%, David Lloyd: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gavin Bone: 1,361, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 933, level confidence: 67%.