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Ryan Phillips v Shola Bello (Wed 14 May 2014)

Match won by Ryan Phillips. Result: 15-7,9-15,12-15,15-7,15-13.

Starting level for Ryan Phillips: 1,790, level confidence: 27%.
Starting level for Shola Bello: 1,700, level confidence: 70%.
Ryan Phillips to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Shola Bello.

Ryan Phillips won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Phillips played 11% better than Shola Bello in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Phillips actually played at a level of 1,842 and Shola Bello at a level of 1,652. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Phillips changes to +2.8% and Shola Bello changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Phillips becomes +2.2% and for Shola Bello becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Ryan Phillips is +1.5% and for Shola Bello is -0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Phillips: 52%, Shola Bello: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Phillips: 50%, Shola Bello: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Phillips: 1,813, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Shola Bello: 1,688, level confidence: 81%.