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Julie Ann Pegram v Gavin McClure (Tue 01 Feb 2011)

Match won by Julie Ann Pegram. Result: 15-13,15-11,13-15,15-13.

Starting level for Julie Ann Pegram: 842, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Gavin McClure: 777, level confidence: 64%.
Julie Ann Pegram to win as she is currently playing 8% better than Gavin McClure.

Julie Ann Pegram won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julie Ann Pegram played 21% better than Gavin McClure in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julie Ann Pegram actually played at a level of 888 and Gavin McClure at a level of 737. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram changes to +5.3% and Gavin McClure changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram becomes +4.1% and for Gavin McClure becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Julie Ann Pegram is +3.1% and for Gavin McClure is -2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julie Ann Pegram: 62%, Gavin McClure: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julie Ann Pegram: 59%, Gavin McClure: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julie Ann Pegram: 867, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Gavin McClure: 758, level confidence: 76%.