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Chris Bhatt v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 01 Feb 2011)

Match won by Paul Scott-Stevens. Result: 15-13,12-15,9-15,15-4,5-15.

Starting level for Chris Bhatt: 1,510, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,909, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Paul Scott-Stevens to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Chris Bhatt.

Paul Scott-Stevens won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Scott-Stevens played 10% better than Chris Bhatt in this match.

As Paul Scott-Stevens has played below his allowed range at 1,746, his level reduction is 5% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Scott-Stevens would normally have been playing at level 1,875 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Bhatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens changes to -3.5% and Chris Bhatt changes to +5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes -2.6% and for Chris Bhatt becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens is -1.9% and for Chris Bhatt is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Scott-Stevens: 87%, Chris Bhatt: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Scott-Stevens: 81%, Chris Bhatt: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Bhatt: 1,548, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,871, level confidence: 81%.