SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Stephen Lloyd v Jack Taylor (Tue 20 May 2014)

Match won by Stephen Lloyd. Result: 15-9,15-7,15-6.

Starting level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,076, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Jack Taylor: 2,502, level confidence: 60%.
Jack Taylor to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Stephen Lloyd.

Stephen Lloyd won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 105% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Lloyd played 105% better than Jack Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Lloyd actually played at a level of 3,260 and Jack Taylor at a level of 1,594. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd changes to +47% and Jack Taylor changes to -51%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd becomes +17.1% and for Jack Taylor becomes -17%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Stephen Lloyd is +11% and for Jack Taylor is -10.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stephen Lloyd is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Lloyd: 80%, Jack Taylor: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Lloyd: 51%, Jack Taylor: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stephen Lloyd: 2,280, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Jack Taylor: 2,271, level confidence: 49%.