Paul Ibson v David Lloyd (Tue 20 May 2014)
Match won by Paul Ibson. Result: 15-10,15-10,15-10.
Starting level for
Paul Ibson:
1,340, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
David Lloyd:
933, level confidence: 65%.
Paul Ibson to win as he is currently playing
44% better than David Lloyd.
Paul Ibson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Ibson played
52% better than David Lloyd in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Ibson actually played at a level of
1,377 and David Lloyd at a level of
908. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Ibson changes to +2.2% and David Lloyd changes to -2.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Ibson becomes +1.9% and for David Lloyd becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Ibson is +1.3% and for David Lloyd is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Ibson: 83%, David Lloyd: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Ibson: 81%, David Lloyd: 78%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Ibson:
1,355, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for David Lloyd:
918, level confidence: 78%.