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Ron Williams v Chris Marshall (Wed 02 Feb 2011)

Match won by Chris Marshall. Result: 3-15,4-15,6-15.

Starting level for Ron Williams: 525, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Chris Marshall: 1,103, level confidence: 50%.
Chris Marshall to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Ron Williams.

Chris Marshall won all of the games and 78% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 246% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Marshall played 246% better than Ron Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Marshall actually played at a level of 1,416 and Ron Williams at a level of 409. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Marshall changes to +10.9% and Ron Williams changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Marshall becomes +6.6% and for Ron Williams becomes -10.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Chris Marshall is +5% and for Ron Williams is -7.8%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ron Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Marshall: 70%, Ron Williams: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Marshall: 55%, Ron Williams: 42%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ron Williams: 499, level confidence: 42%.
Final level for Chris Marshall: 1,156, level confidence: 55%.