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Andy Homeyard v Ian Taylor (Wed 02 Feb 2011)

Match won by Andy Homeyard. Result: 15-10,15-9,7-15,14-16,15-11.

Starting level for Andy Homeyard: 1,291, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,023, level confidence: 69%.
Andy Homeyard to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Ian Taylor.

Andy Homeyard won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Homeyard played 10% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

As Andy Homeyard has played below his allowed range at 1,179, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that Andy Homeyard would normally have been playing at level 1,268 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 5.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Homeyard changes to -4.6% and Ian Taylor changes to +5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Homeyard becomes -3.5% and for Ian Taylor becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Andy Homeyard is -2.6% and for Ian Taylor is +2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Homeyard: 78%, Ian Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Homeyard: 72%, Ian Taylor: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Homeyard: 1,257, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,052, level confidence: 77%.