SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Cesar Ramirez-Molina v Justin Turnpenny (Wed 21 May 2014)

Match won by Cesar Ramirez-Molina. Result: 15-11,15-7,15-7.

Starting level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,317, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,354, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Justin Turnpenny to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Cesar Ramirez-Molina.

Cesar Ramirez-Molina won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Ramirez-Molina played 80% better than Justin Turnpenny in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cesar Ramirez-Molina actually played at a level of 1,792 and Justin Turnpenny at a level of 995. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina changes to +35% and Justin Turnpenny changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina becomes +16% and for Justin Turnpenny becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Cesar Ramirez-Molina is +10.4% and for Justin Turnpenny is -7.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Justin Turnpenny is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 74%, Justin Turnpenny: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 55%, Justin Turnpenny: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Ramirez-Molina: 1,447, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Justin Turnpenny: 1,288, level confidence: 62%.