Dave Walden v Chris Roper (Tue 27 May 2014)
Match won by Chris Roper. Result: 9-15,15-10,5-15,8-15.
Starting level for
Dave Walden:
1,504, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Chris Roper:
1,830, level confidence: 65%.
Chris Roper to win as he is currently playing
22% better than Dave Walden.
Chris Roper won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 49% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Roper played
33% better than Dave Walden in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Roper actually played at a level of
1,912 and Dave Walden at a level of
1,440. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Roper changes to +4% and Dave Walden changes to -3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Roper becomes +2.8% and for Dave Walden becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Chris Roper is +1.8% and for Dave Walden is -1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Roper: 81%, Dave Walden: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Roper: 77%, Dave Walden: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Dave Walden:
1,476, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Chris Roper:
1,860, level confidence: 77%.