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Nev Rimes v Stuart Wylie (Thu 03 Feb 2011)

Match won by Nev Rimes. Result: 18-16,15-12,15-3.

Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,988, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Stuart Wylie: 1,130, level confidence: 25%.
Nev Rimes to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Stuart Wylie.

Nev Rimes won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nev Rimes played 55% better than Stuart Wylie in this match.

In this case, Nev Rimes played at level 1,784 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nev Rimes would normally have been playing at level 1,818 (based on typical behaviour), Stuart Wylie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nev Rimes changes to 0% and Stuart Wylie changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nev Rimes becomes 0% and for Stuart Wylie becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Nev Rimes is 0% and for Stuart Wylie is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nev Rimes: 78%, Stuart Wylie: 50%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nev Rimes: 73%, Stuart Wylie: 47%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,985, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Stuart Wylie: 1,140, level confidence: 47%.