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Chris Hunt v Mark Douglas (Tue 27 May 2014)

Match won by Mark Douglas. Result: 15-10,11-15,15-7,13-15,11-15.

Starting level for Chris Hunt: 923, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Mark Douglas: 1,336, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Mark Douglas to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Chris Hunt.

Mark Douglas won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark Douglas played 6% better than Chris Hunt in this match.

As Mark Douglas has played below his allowed range at 1,090, his level reduction is 11% before damping. On the assumption that Mark Douglas would normally have been playing at level 1,281 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Hunt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark Douglas changes to -4.5% and Chris Hunt changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark Douglas becomes -3.4% and for Chris Hunt becomes +7.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Mark Douglas is -2.2% and for Chris Hunt is +4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark Douglas: 86%, Chris Hunt: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark Douglas: 74%, Chris Hunt: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hunt: 965, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Mark Douglas: 1,306, level confidence: 74%.