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Las Fernando v Scott Rickard (Thu 03 Feb 2011)

Match won by Scott Rickard. Result: 7-15,4-15,13-15.

Starting level for Las Fernando: 3,364, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Scott Rickard: 4,317, level confidence: 61%.
Scott Rickard to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Las Fernando.

Scott Rickard won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Rickard played 88% better than Las Fernando in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Rickard actually played at a level of 5,218 and Las Fernando at a level of 2,783. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Rickard changes to +14% and Las Fernando changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Rickard becomes +5.2% and for Las Fernando becomes -6.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Scott Rickard is +3.9% and for Las Fernando is -4.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Rickard: 78%, Las Fernando: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Rickard: 65%, Las Fernando: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Las Fernando: 3,201, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Scott Rickard: 4,477, level confidence: 65%.