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Jon Miles v Dominic Webster (Tue 27 May 2014)

Match won by Jon Miles. Result: 8-15,15-6,15-13,15-10.

Starting level for Jon Miles: 1,962, level confidence: 39%.
Starting level for Dominic Webster: 1,184, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Jon Miles to win as he is currently playing 66% better than Dominic Webster.

Jon Miles won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jon Miles played 24% better than Dominic Webster in this match.

As Jon Miles has played below his allowed range at 1,555, his level reduction is 6.3% before damping. On the assumption that Jon Miles would normally have been playing at level 1,824 (based on typical behaviour), Dominic Webster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jon Miles changes to -4.9% and Dominic Webster changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jon Miles becomes -3.1% and for Dominic Webster becomes +3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Jon Miles is -2% and for Dominic Webster is +2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jon Miles: 63%, Dominic Webster: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jon Miles: 54%, Dominic Webster: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jon Miles: 1,921, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Dominic Webster: 1,210, level confidence: 74%.