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Storm Hart v Dave Tann (Tue 27 May 2014)

Match won by Storm Hart. Result: 11-15,15-8,15-12,15-12.

Starting level for Storm Hart: 1,335, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Dave Tann: 1,202, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Storm Hart to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Dave Tann.

Storm Hart won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Storm Hart played 23% better than Dave Tann in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Storm Hart actually played at a level of 1,405 and Dave Tann at a level of 1,142. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Storm Hart changes to +5% and Dave Tann changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Storm Hart becomes +3.5% and for Dave Tann becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Storm Hart is +2.3% and for Dave Tann is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Storm Hart: 82%, Dave Tann: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Storm Hart: 78%, Dave Tann: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Storm Hart: 1,364, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Dave Tann: 1,176, level confidence: 83%.