Tony Revell v Simon Taylor (Tue 03 Jun 2014)
Match won by Simon Taylor. Result: 13-15,10-15,12-15.
Starting level for
Tony Revell:
906, level confidence: 12%.
Starting level for
Simon Taylor:
1,305, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Simon Taylor to win as he is currently playing
44% better than Tony Revell.
Simon Taylor won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Taylor played
37% better than Tony Revell in this match.
In this case, Simon Taylor played at level 1,248 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Simon Taylor would normally have been playing at level 1,252 (based on typical behaviour), Tony Revell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Taylor changes to 0% and Tony Revell changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Taylor becomes 0% and for Tony Revell becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Simon Taylor is 0% and for Tony Revell is 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Taylor: 87%, Tony Revell: 34%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Taylor: 85%, Tony Revell: 33%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tony Revell:
906, level confidence: 33%.
Final level for Simon Taylor:
1,303, level confidence: 85%.