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Charles Yerrell v James Cooper (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by Charles Yerrell. Result: 15-10,15-8,11-15,15-9.

Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 2,115, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Cooper: 2,084, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Charles Yerrell to win as he is currently playing 1% better than James Cooper.

Charles Yerrell won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charles Yerrell played 28% better than James Cooper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charles Yerrell actually played at a level of 2,373 and James Cooper at a level of 1,857. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell changes to +12% and James Cooper changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell becomes +5.6% and for James Cooper becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Charles Yerrell is +4.2% and for James Cooper is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charles Yerrell: 89%, James Cooper: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charles Yerrell: 79%, James Cooper: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charles Yerrell: 2,200, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for James Cooper: 2,001, level confidence: 81%.