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Mark Slaney v Karl Fenwick (Tue 03 Jun 2014)

Match won by Karl Fenwick. Result: 13-15,9-15,5-15.

Starting level for Mark Slaney: 1,290, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,442, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Karl Fenwick to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Mark Slaney.

Karl Fenwick won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Karl Fenwick played 67% better than Mark Slaney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Karl Fenwick actually played at a level of 1,761 and Mark Slaney at a level of 1,056. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Karl Fenwick changes to +21% and Mark Slaney changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Karl Fenwick becomes +9.9% and for Mark Slaney becomes -10.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Karl Fenwick is +6.4% and for Mark Slaney is -6.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Slaney is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Karl Fenwick: 84%, Mark Slaney: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Karl Fenwick: 69%, Mark Slaney: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Slaney: 1,249, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,532, level confidence: 69%.