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Nick Cartwright v Neil Newbery (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by Neil Newbery. Result: 13-15,8-15,8-15.

Starting level for Nick Cartwright: 1,614, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Neil Newbery: 1,918, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Neil Newbery to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Nick Cartwright.

Neil Newbery won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Newbery played 55% better than Nick Cartwright in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Newbery actually played at a level of 2,191 and Nick Cartwright at a level of 1,413. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Newbery changes to +10.7% and Nick Cartwright changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Newbery becomes +5.3% and for Nick Cartwright becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Neil Newbery is +3.9% and for Nick Cartwright is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Newbery: 91%, Nick Cartwright: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Newbery: 80%, Nick Cartwright: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Cartwright: 1,538, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Neil Newbery: 1,991, level confidence: 80%.