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Gary Wood v Vinh Tram (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by Gary Wood. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-8.

Starting level for Gary Wood: 963, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Vinh Tram: 1,149, level confidence: 68%.
Vinh Tram to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Gary Wood.

Gary Wood won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gary Wood played 73% better than Vinh Tram in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gary Wood actually played at a level of 1,384 and Vinh Tram at a level of 800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gary Wood changes to +39% and Vinh Tram changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gary Wood becomes +19.8% and for Vinh Tram becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Gary Wood is +15% and for Vinh Tram is -9.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gary Wood is limited to +10% and Vinh Tram is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gary Wood: 69%, Vinh Tram: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gary Wood: 48%, Vinh Tram: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Wood: 1,058, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Vinh Tram: 1,093, level confidence: 58%.