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Paul Carter v Gavin Bone (Tue 03 Jun 2014)

Match won by Paul Carter. Result: 15-10,15-11,9-15,15-7.

Starting level for Paul Carter: 1,170, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Gavin Bone: 1,306, level confidence: 58%.
Gavin Bone to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Paul Carter.

Paul Carter won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Carter played 25% better than Gavin Bone in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Carter actually played at a level of 1,383 and Gavin Bone at a level of 1,105. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Carter changes to +14% and Gavin Bone changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Carter becomes +7.9% and for Gavin Bone becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Carter is +5.2% and for Gavin Bone is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gavin Bone is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Carter: 83%, Gavin Bone: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Carter: 70%, Gavin Bone: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Carter: 1,229, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Gavin Bone: 1,242, level confidence: 64%.