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Keith Farnham v Alastair Ambrose (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by Alastair Ambrose. Result: 11-15,11-15,10-15.

Starting level for Keith Farnham: 1,625, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Alastair Ambrose: 2,634, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Alastair Ambrose to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Keith Farnham.

Alastair Ambrose won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alastair Ambrose played 45% better than Keith Farnham in this match.

In this case, Alastair Ambrose played at level 2,412 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alastair Ambrose would normally have been playing at level 2,463 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Farnham played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose changes to 0% and Keith Farnham changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose becomes 0% and for Keith Farnham becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Alastair Ambrose is 0% and for Keith Farnham is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alastair Ambrose: 88%, Keith Farnham: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alastair Ambrose: 84%, Keith Farnham: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Farnham: 1,639, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alastair Ambrose: 2,630, level confidence: 84%.