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Phil Littlefair v Rob Coghlan (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 15-8,15-13,15-7.

Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,536, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Rob Coghlan: 1,137, level confidence: 68%.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Rob Coghlan.

Phil Littlefair won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 61% better than Rob Coghlan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Littlefair actually played at a level of 1,675 and Rob Coghlan at a level of 1,042. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.8% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to +7.6% and Rob Coghlan changes to -7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes +4.4% and for Rob Coghlan becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is +3.3% and for Rob Coghlan is -3.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 83%, Rob Coghlan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 76%, Rob Coghlan: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,585, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Rob Coghlan: 1,094, level confidence: 76%.